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Winner Take All
PDF Download Winner Take All
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From the Back Cover
The futures industry is unique, entertaining and, for far too many people, ultimately heartbreaking. What other industry possesses such an entertaining cast of soothsayers, self-proclaimed experts and charlatans? Where else do people become fabulously wealthy simply by acting on their own convictions? And where else does the possibility of failure loom so large and so constant? No other book captures the essence of the futures industry better than Winner Take All. With a penetrating intelligence and a sharp wit, Bill Gallacher dissects many of the industry's leading lights, exposing the frauds, deflating the pompous and poking fun at the seers who believe they can predict the future. Along the way, he demonstrates why most traders lose and, most importantly, what it takes to win. Winner Take All is a book for all traders. For those who believe in easy-money trading systems, it is a sobering antidote. For those who think the markets can't be beaten, it is a work of great inspiration. And for those who are trading profitably, it is an affirmation of the trading success principles. Winner Take All is a wise and profound book. But it is also perhaps the wittiest book on trading ever written. Read Mr. Gallacher on Fibonacci numbers: "Surely the medieval mathematician would be astounded at his impact on the twentieth-century commodity man. His mathematical series was constructed from observations on the incestuous copulation patterns of rabbits. Let's see, you start with a male and a female, then you take the first female offspring and you...well, better not get into it". Mr. Gallacher, a successful private trader, questions all conventional wisdom. He exposes the false premises that underliemuch of technical analysis, and he demonstrates why mechanical trading approaches - while sometimes producing marginal profits - can never provide truly superior results. Although out-of-favor in today's computer age, Mr. Gallacher shows why fundamental analysis, if conducted with insight and imagination, offers the best chance of anticipating and profiting from the big trends which regularly rock the futures markets. Ultimately, Mr. Gallacher asserts, superior trading requires vision - the ability to see what others can't, the ability to envision a major change when everybody else is caught up in the current trend and, most importantly, the courage to act on one's vision. A stellar addition to the literature of trading, Winner Take All will provide traders with inspiration and insights for many years to come.
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Product details
Hardcover: 264 pages
Publisher: Irwin Professional Publishing; Revised ed. edition (December 19, 1993)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 9781557385338
ISBN-13: 978-1557385338
ASIN: 1557385335
Product Dimensions:
6 x 0.8 x 9 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
3.6 out of 5 stars
20 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#1,083,850 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Gallacher proves himself to be an excellent critic and skeptic in this book, pointing out faults and errors in others. I would say that's of the most valuable part of the book. You can find pimping of products, and authors' positive features of their work in any book. Gallacher finally takes a critical look at some of the common methods out there, and gives you the negative side as well, and errors in logic. That's what makes this book worth reading. A few examples of people being "found out" are Larry Williams, Bruce Babcock, and W.D. Gann, not to mention some flaws in common techniques, like trendlines. I don't think he handled Elliot wave as good as he could have, though. Elliot's health and mental capacity was dwindling due to a disease (I forgot the name of the disease), and ended up dying in a hospital, and was finishing work on the Wave Principle as fast as he could before the disease finally took over. To simply say Elliot died in an insane asylum broke does not tell the whole story. Elliot Wave has plenty of flaws in it and is quite ridiculous, in my opinion, and could have been busted open better than this.This book is probably required reading for those who are new to the business, and expect to make a killing by reading about some new indicator or following a black box system. The book is ground in reality.I can see how some can have isssue with his remarks toward technical analysis. First, he shows how it's flawed. Then, in the next chapter and then on, he's showing how he uses it to help him trade. It's not a contradiction, really, and he's not being hypocritical. He uses different methods of TA than what he rips apart at the beginning of the book.Shows errors in optimal f also, and Artificial Intelligence.Even if you use TA and are a TA zealot, the book can probably help you still. I use TA extensively, and found the book insightful.
I enjoyed reading this book. It might be a bit disappointing for a TA trader to read a book from an author attacking the validity of this field, but in my opinion it's essential. The whole field has more and more become a treasure island for charlatans and cheaters to get their stuff sold. The major part of the study on chart patterns and trendlines is flawed, just like the author also shows in this book. His demonstration is not as strong as in David Aronson his book (EBTA), but nevertheless you'll get the message.I also liked his critic on neural netwerks and on optimal f*. For people like me who are employing these terms in their trading, this certainly was a nice read. His comments on Larry Williams are pretty amusing.The last chapter concludes with a study from the author on selling options on futures. The results were quite suprising, I taught the sellers would have a bigger edge compared to the buyers. Apparently not ..
Two hundred pages into "Winner Take All", you'll find Gallacher dissecting Ralph Vince's optimal F strategy for position sizing, pointing out the obvious ways in which it can result in dangerous levels of overtrading that can put you out of business. At the end is an illustration of a trader aiming a gun at his own head and blowing his brains out, with the caption "optimally f'd". While it sounds kind of tasteless written down this way, when I came across it the first time I was laughing so hard I had to put the book down and catch my breath for a minute.That's the sort of work you'll find throughout this very contrarian text whose nominal focus is on commodities trading. The scathing commentary wouldn't be so helpful were it just being sensationalist, but the analysis throughout this book is spot on in addition to being extremely funny at times.While Gallacher's coverage of commodities is solid, albeit fairly pedestrian, his discussion of trading gurus is simultaneously informative, entertaining, and controversial. Ralph Vince gets off pretty easy compared with how other revered industry fellows are lampooned. You'll find plenty of dirt on popular trading role models like John Murphy, W. D. Gann, Elliot, Larry Williams, Richard Dennis (and the turtles), Bruce Babcock, and Welles Wilder (not to mention a thoroughly deserved bashing of Neural Networks). Anyone who is following techniques proposed by those gentleman should consider reading "Winner Take All" just to make sure you're seasoning their claims with a healthy enough skepticism. As other reviews here claim, Gallacher may be doing his own manipulation on the data in order to prove his own points in this area, and you'd be wise to apply the same level of skepticism he brings to other figures to his own claims. Very interesting reading, and written in a thoroughly enjoyable style.The centerpiece of the book is one of the most real-world discussions of an working trading system I've found. A standard trend-following breakout system is presented and shown to make 385% annually; pretty good, right? It's then shown rather realistically how commissions, slippage, and stop order issues will eat into that. Then, he analyzes the real capital required to actually run that system through its expected drawdowns. Whenit's all done, that magic winning system is lucky to hit 17% across the amount of capital actually required to run it. Having built multiple trading systems myself with multi-hundred percent per year predicted results that actually lost money once the entirety of actual trading and money management was factored in, I'm shocked that more books on trading systems don't cover this topic. Note that some of the things that really bash the profits in the examples down are specific to commodities (like the limit down/up problem), but stocks have their own issues that are of equal magnitude (in my own systems, I've noted that the bid/ask difference on stocks going through a breakout on volume are dramatically higher than any model I've ever seen suggests).In short, those looking for a healthy dose of anti-holy grail trading advice might do well to read "Winner Take All", and those building any sort of trading system should consider it essential. You won't get much advise on what to do unless you're specifically looking for information on trading commodities on fundamentals, but there's a lot of solid material on what to make sure you don't do.
Wow. It has been a long time since I've written a review. Sometimes though you find something that gets you out of your chair and to the keyboard. Gallacher is clear, concise and sensible. The basic message: Have a fundamental reason for investing, and use the trend to ensure that you profit from your reasoning, or at least to ensure that you don't get hurt too badly if you are wrong. The message is that simple. The writing is that clear.If you are a beliver in TA or purely mechanical trading systems, you will likely be offended by his constant unmasking of these concepts. He even takes a swipe at the father of systems-based investing/backtesting, Robert Pardo. But at the same time he says that what does work is "the trend." And guess what, academic research since he published this book backs it up.This is the kind of guy you wish you could meet over dinner and just pick his brains. He seems to have a good sense of humor too. A great writer with a great story.
An insightful view into the world of futures trading by an actual trader
common sense book,good read from an experienced trader
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